Market Concerns: The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting expressed concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to short-term volatility in gold prices.
Data Overview: US durable goods orders in April fell by -6.3% month-on-month, compared to the expected 7.8% and the previous value of 7.6%. The revised annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the first quarter was -0.2%, compared to the expected -0.3% and the previous value of -0.3%. The annualized quarter-on-quarter revision of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the US for the first quarter was 3.4%, compared to the expected 3.5% and the previous value of 3.5%.
Fed’s Stance: The Federal Reserve policymakers believe that the uncertainty of the economic outlook is “exceptionally high” and reaffirmed their full ability to wait until the economic and inflation outlook becomes clearer before taking action. “Almost all” mentioned the risk that inflation might be more persistent. The Federal Reserve hinted at concerns that tariffs would push up inflation.
Interest Rate Outlook: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, in September and December, each by 25 basis points. The expected interest rate cut in September is 56.9%.
Gold Price Trend: Short-term data has little stimulating effect on gold prices, but Trump’s repeated tariffs have increased the volatility of gold prices. It is expected that gold prices will show a volatile trend in the short term. In the long term, the pace of central banks’ purchase of gold has not slowed down significantly, and the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle. The long-term bull market of gold prices remains.
Copper and Aluminum:
Copper:
Price: The closing price of LME copper this week was $9,560 per ton, a decrease of 0.05% compared to $5 per ton on May 16th. The closing price of SHFE copper was 77,930 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton compared with May 23rd, representing a rise of 0.14%.
Inventory: LME inventory was 149,875 tons (compared with May 23, it was -14,850 tons, and compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31,750 tons). COMEX inventory was 180,629 tons (up 4,998 tons compared with May 23 and up 163,153 tons year-on-year). SHFE inventory stands at 105,791 tons (up 7,120 tons from May 23).
Smelting: The spot price of China’s copper concentrate TC this week was -43.45 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.85 US dollars per dry ton compared with the previous week.
Downstream Sector: The domestic operating rate of copper rods this week was 75.9%, an increase of 5.27 percentage points compared with the previous week. The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 27.31%, an increase of 5.17pct compared with the previous period. The operating rate of wires and cables was 78.67%, -3.67pct compared with the previous period.
Price Trend: As copper rod enterprises that had previously suspended or reduced production gradually resumed operations, the month-on-month operating rate of refined copper rods has slightly increased. However, terminal demand is relatively weak, and downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude. As a result, the new orders of refined copper rod enterprises within the week weakened month-on-month, and consumption was significantly worse compared to April. However, the current domestic inventory of refined copper is relatively low, and it is expected that the copper price will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the future.
Aluminum:
Price: The domestic electrolytic aluminum price is 20,240 yuan per ton, compared with -160 yuan per ton on May 23rd, a decline of -0.78%.
Inventory: LME aluminum inventory this week was 372,525 tons (compared with May 23-14,375 tons, and compared with the same period – 747,525 tons). The inventory of the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,433 tons (compared with May 23, it was -16,856 tons; compared with the same period, it was -93,352 tons). On May 29, 2025, the domestic social aluminum inventory of SMM was 511,000 tons, compared with 46,000 tons on May 15.
Profit: The immediate smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan region was 2,326 yuan per ton, compared with 295 yuan per ton on May 23rd. The immediate smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang region was 3,416 yuan per ton, compared with 295 yuan per ton on May 23rd.
Downstream Sector: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum profile enterprises this week was 57%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous week. This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises was 64.8%, remaining unchanged compared with the previous week.
Price Trend: The US federal courts prevented Trump’s tariffs from taking effect. The US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s imposition of comprehensive tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on the grounds of trade deficits and other reasons was an act of overstepping his authority. Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers generally believe that the uncertainties facing the economy are higher than before, and it is appropriate to be cautious when dealing with interest rate cuts. In terms of fundamentals, although some industries have shown expectations of weakening during the off-season, inventories continue to be reduced, and the aluminum price is likely to fluctuate at a high level.
Tin:
Price: The domestic refined tin price was 251,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.29% compared with 14,030 yuan per ton on May 23rd.
Inventory: The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory this week was 8,107 tons, compared with 338 tons on May 23rd. LME inventories stood at 2,680 tons, down 15 tons from May 23.
Market Outlook: The strengthened expectation of resumption of production on the supply side has suppressed tin prices. As May was coming to an end, although the short-term tight supply situation of tin ore had not improved, the market’s expectations of supply recovery brought about by the resumption of tin production in the Wa State of Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had risen, and the uncertainty of the US tariff policy had cooled market risk appetite, leading to a significant correction in tin prices. In the spot market, the terminal only purchases essential goods. However, after the tin price dropped during the week, it stimulated the downstream to replenish inventories. It is expected that the tin price trend will mainly fluctuate in the future.
Antimony:
Price: The domestic antimony ingot price this week was 210,500 yuan per ton, compared with 10,000 yuan per ton on May 23rd, a decline of 4.49%.
Market Outlook: There were few active quotations in the market and limited transactions. The shortage of raw materials and the sales situation falling short of expectations have led major factories to report production halts and reductions one after another, with plans to suspend production for two months. Currently, it is learned that the goods piled up at the port have been flowing back to the domestic market, resulting in an oversupply at present. Antimony prices are expected to remain weak.
Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies:
Gold: The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, and gold will maintain an upward trend. Maintain the “Recommend” investment rating for the gold industry.
Copper: Short-term demand may weaken, but it is expected that supply and demand will remain tight in the medium and long term. Maintain a “Recommend” investment rating for the copper industry.
Aluminum: Short-term demand may weaken, but it is expected that supply and demand will remain tight in the medium and long term. Maintain a “Recommend” investment rating for the aluminum industry.
Tin: Short-term supply factors have led to a decline in tin prices, but downstream replenishment supports tin prices. Maintain a “Recommend” investment.
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