OPEC+ has agreed to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking its third consecutive monthly increase despite crude prices hovering near four-year lows at around $62/barrel. The move reflects Saudi Arabia’s dual strategy of disciplining quota-breaking members like Iraq and Kazakhstan while reclaiming market share from U.S. shale producers.
The decision comes as global demand fears mount due to Trump’s trade wars, with OPEC+ having already restored 62% of its earlier production cuts since April. Analysts warn the group is now prioritizing sales volume over price stability, a risky gamble that could backfire if recession fears deepen.
Internal divisions emerged during talks, with Russia, Algeria and Oman advocating for a pause in hikes. The sustained output increases are particularly squeezing U.S. shale firms, which require higher prices to remain profitable, setting the stage for potential market turbulence ahead of OPEC+’s next meeting.
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