Gold prices (XAU/USD) reached a new intraday high during early European trading hours on Monday. Analysts expect gold to rise further as it attempts to break through the psychological barrier of $3,300.
The rise comes as investors turn to gold as a safe-haven asset amid cautious market sentiment. Market attention is focused on the ongoing US-China trade discussions taking place in London. Additionally, growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2025 are also boosting demand for gold.
US Jobs Report Supports Dollar, Caps Gold Rally
Despite the upward momentum, gold’s rally has faced some resistance. Last Friday, the release of a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report reduced investor expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This news strengthened the US dollar, which hit its highest level in over a week during the latest trading session. A stronger dollar typically makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, limiting gold’s upside.
Traders now appear more cautious. Many are likely to wait for key US inflation data later this week before deciding whether gold’s rebound from a one-week low will continue or fade.
Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance at 200-Hour SMA Could Decide Next Move
From a technical standpoint, gold failed to break above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is around the $3,333–$3,334 range. This failure and the subsequent pullback suggest possible short-term bearish pressure.
Oscillators on the hourly chart continue to move lower, signaling that the downward momentum may continue. If gold falls below the $3,294–$3,293 level—marking the overnight swing low—it could confirm a bearish outlook. This may open the door for further losses, potentially taking prices down to the May 29 low near $3,246–$3,245, and possibly even toward $3,200.
Short-Term Resistance May Trigger Rebound
However, the 100-hour SMA, also in the $3,333–$3,334 zone, remains an important resistance level in the short term. If gold manages to break above this level, it could trigger intraday short-covering and fuel a price rally.
In this scenario, gold could quickly rise toward the next resistance around $3,352–$3,353. A continued push higher may test the $3,377–$3,378 range. If that level is broken, gold could again challenge the major psychological level at $3,400.
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