Over the past four trading days, the U.S. dollar has shown little movement. Attempts to push above the 99.00 index level have repeatedly stalled, leaving the currency stuck in a narrow range.
Sparse Deal Details Fuel Skepticism
Washington and Beijing announced a “framework” to ease restrictions on rare earth exports, loosely echoing last month’s Geneva understanding. However, the agreement provided few specifics. Traders remain doubtful that this deal will hold or deliver major shifts in supply.
Investors Cautious Despite “Better-Than-Nothing” View
Although markets generally prefer any agreement over none, traders have greeted the news without much enthusiasm. The dollar climbed in Asian hours on Wednesday but quickly gave back gains once European markets opened.
Eyes on May CPI and Treasury Auctions
All focus now turns to U.S. inflation and debt auctions:
May Consumer Price Index
Analysts expect headline inflation to tick higher, driven by energy costs. At the same time, core CPI may begin to reflect the impact of tariffs, raising fears of renewed price pressures.
$39 Billion 10-Year Treasury Auction
Investors will watch indirect bidders’ demand closely. In May, indirect bidders absorbed 71% of the issue; weaker interest this time could weigh on bond yields—and on the dollar.
Together, the upcoming CPI reading and Treasury auction will test whether the dollar can find fresh momentum or remain trapped in its recent, tepid pattern.
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