At the Shenwan Hongyuan 2025 Capital Market Summer Strategy Meeting in Beijing, chief A-share strategist Fu Jingtao outlined a bullish outlook for Chinese equities, forecasting a potential “Chinese-style slow bull” market from 2026-2027. Fu anticipates market momentum will begin building in Q4 2025, with Q3 likely maintaining a high-range volatility pattern as prelude to the sustained upward movement. His analysis suggests this coming cycle will differ from previous A-share rallies by exhibiting more measured, value-driven characteristics supported by fundamental improvements rather than speculative fervor.
Fu emphasized three structural supports for this prolonged bull market scenario. First, he noted China’s maturing regulatory framework now possesses multiple tools to moderate market cycles, including Central Huijin’s stabilizing “national team” function and insurance funds’ volatility-dampening capacity. Second, the public fund industry’s quality-focused development helps prevent excessive liquidity-driven expansions. Most importantly, Fu highlighted that gradually rising return expectations across A-shares should provide the foundation for steadier, more sustainable gains compared to previous boom-bust cycles.
The strategist’s outlook reflects growing confidence in China’s capital market reforms and macroeconomic rebalancing. By projecting a “slow bull” scenario, Fu suggests Chinese equities may be transitioning toward a more mature market pattern where earnings growth and valuation support replace pure liquidity-driven rallies, potentially attracting longer-term institutional participation both domestically and internationally.
Related topics：
