Stocks have climbed this year as U.S. and China reached a trade truce. Yet several CEOs warn this pause may not last. One Fortune 500 executive who recently met with the Trump administration said 30% tariffs could become the new normal without a major breakthrough.
Big Tech Continues to Advance
The “Big Seven” tech names—Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia—have led the rally. These firms keep posting gains even as trade uncertainties persist.
Mixed Signals from Corporate Bellwethers
Earnings from Cisco and Walmart have been mixed. Both companies beat some expectations but fell short in other areas. Their results show that even established firms face challenges in a volatile market.
Guidance Losing Relevance
Many CEOs now question the usefulness of earnings forecasts. A single social-media post can upend a carefully planned outlook. Former Medtronic CEO Bill George urged companies to drop guidance altogether. He argued that without clear “ground rules,” forecasts only set companies up to miss targets.
Walmart’s Example
Walmart cut its full-year earnings-per-share forecast at an investor event and reconfirmed the cut a week later. Executives then announced plans to raise prices—some by double digits—if tariffs return to pre-truce levels. The stock dipped, but the guidance was already public.
Other CEOs Follow Suit
Mattel’s CEO, Ynon Kreiz, withdrew guidance because of trade uncertainty. He hinted that this move may force the company to cut toy prices soon. United Airlines still maintains a wide guidance range, even though some executives consider it too vague.
Outlook for Investors
Wall Street expects earnings growth above 10% this year. Yet many strategists doubt such forecasts in a market defined by tariffs and rapid news cycles. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, said stock pickers may find opportunities but warned that systemwide earnings estimates are likely too high.
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