International crude oil prices experienced a slight uptick on Friday but concluded the week with losses. The rise followed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pivot, yet investors remained cautious, weighing expectations for increased global supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against fresh stimulus measures from China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Price Settlements
Brent crude futures settled higher, gaining 38 cents or 0.53% to close at $71.89 per barrel. Meanwhile, front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 51 cents or 0.75%, finishing at $68.18. Despite Friday’s gains, both benchmarks reported weekly losses, with Brent down about 3% and WTI declining around 5%. In India, crude oil futures remained relatively flat at ₹5,694 per barrel on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
China’s Economic Measures
China’s central bank took measures to stimulate the economy, lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity into the banking system. These actions aim to boost economic growth toward the government’s target of approximately 5% for this year. Further fiscal measures are anticipated before the upcoming Chinese holidays starting on October 1, as leaders express urgency regarding escalating economic challenges.
OPEC+ Supply Outlook
According to Reuters, OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will proceed with plans to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month starting in December. A report from the Financial Times indicated that this planned increase follows Saudi Arabia’s decision to move away from a $100 oil price target in favor of gaining market share.
Saudi Arabia has consistently denied any intention to target a specific oil price. Sources within the broader oil group informed Reuters that the plans to raise output from December 2024 do not signify a significant shift from the current oil output policy.
Libya’s Crude Exports
The global oil market may see an increase in supply as rival factions in Libya have signed an agreement to resolve their dispute over control of the Central Bank. This resolution could lead to a rise in crude exports, which had plummeted to 400,000 bpd this month from over 1 million bpd previously.
Conclusion
As the oil market navigates between supply increases from OPEC+ and China’s economic stimulus efforts, fluctuations in prices are expected to continue. Investors will closely monitor developments in both regions as they shape the future of crude oil supply and demand.
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