South Korea’s exports are expected to fall in April as sweeping tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on products such as cars and steel start to bite, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
South Korea is the first major exporting economy to release trade data each month, giving an early glimpse into the state of global trade.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are expected to fall 2.0% this month from a year earlier, compared with a 3.0% rise the previous month, according to the average forecast of 22 economists in a survey conducted April 23-28.
That would be the first year-on-year decline in three months. In January, exports fell 10.1%, with the decline exacerbated by an unfavorable calendar effect from the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars from April 3, following a 25% tariff on imported steel from March 4. His across-the-board tariff of 10% also took effect from April 5, while higher “reciprocal” tariffs on major countries, including a 25% tariff on South Korea, are currently suspended for 90 days.
“The impact of tariffs is starting to show up, not only in soft data but also in hard data,” said Stephen Lee, economist at Meritz Securities.
“There is a possibility that the negative impact of tariffs will start to materialize,” said Jeon Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Securities.
“In addition, the upcoming tariffs on auto parts and semiconductors and the ongoing trade conflict between China and the U.S. will add further downward pressure,” Chun added.
However, economists noted that the chip industry, South Korea’s largest export, has remained resilient at least this month, which could provide some support for the overall data.
In the first 20 days of the month, exports fell 5.2%, with automobiles and steel products falling 6.5% and 8.7% respectively, while semiconductors rose 10.7%. By destination, exports to the United States fell 14.3% and those to China fell 3.4%.
The Bank of Korea said South Korean automakers have become more pessimistic about the industry’s outlook due to tariffs, but chipmakers are optimistic due to strong demand.
Meanwhile, imports are expected to fall 7.0% in April, the survey showed. That would be the biggest drop since June 2024.
The median value of the country’s trade balance was a surplus of $4.35 billion, down from $4.92 billion the previous month.
South Korea is scheduled to release April trade data at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT) on Thursday, May 1.
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