Since President Trump took office three months ago, the S&P 500 has fallen 14%, the worst performance for U.S. stocks after a president took office since 1928.
Ironically, Trump’s “America First” agenda has hit U.S. stocks harder than the rest of the world; country-level ETFs have risen 3.2% on average since Jan. 20, according to analysis by Bespoke Investment Group.
European stocks have been boosted by plans to increase defense spending on the continent given Trump’s uncertain commitment to the NATO alliance.
Trump 2.0 was supposed to bring a stock market boom. But that wasn’t the case in the first few months.
Since President Trump took office, the S&P 500 has fallen 14%, the worst start to a year for stocks since a president took office last century, according to an analysis released Monday by Bespoke Investment Group.
The S&P 500’s drop “is the largest drop in the index three months into a president’s term since 1928,” the analysts wrote. The second-biggest drop came during Roosevelt’s third term in 1941, when stocks fell 9% amid a domestic debate over whether the U.S. should enter World War II.
Stocks were riding high for much of November and December, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs on Trump’s promises of tax cuts and deregulation. At the time, investors viewed the president-elect’s tariff threats as a negotiating tactic. But Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have since sent financial markets into turmoil and cast a pall over the economy. U.S. stocks fell sharply again on Monday, posting their worst few days in decades against a backdrop of uncertainty.
Few stock markets have been as hard hit by President Trump’s “America First” policies as the U.S. stock market. Of the 45 country ETFs Bespoke examined, only Taiwan’s stock market has had a tougher start to the Trump presidency than the U.S. stock market, falling 15.5%. Country ETFs have gained an average of 3.2% since Trump took office, about 18 percentage points more than the S&P 500.
European stocks have been among the best performers this year. The iShares MSCI Germany ETF ( EWG ) has gained 10.8% over the past three months, boosted by new stimulus and plans for more defense spending. Stocks in Italy (+10.2%), the U.K. (+6.6%), and France (+3.7%) also outperformed the U.S., despite a hit from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement earlier this month.
