A new study predicts that Bitcoin’s price could reach $1 million as early as 2027 as more than 1,000 BTC are extracted from the liquid supply daily.
The model, based on economic fundamentals, describes an environment of increasing institutional accumulation and rapidly shrinking supply, driving prices up at an increasingly rapid pace.
The study, “A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting,” published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management, uses a supply and demand equilibrium model specifically built around Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule. Unlike traditional commodities, Bitcoin is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks because it cannot meet growing demand by increasing production.
“This parameter suggests that the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million by early 2027 for all levels of daily withdrawals above 1,000 BTC,” the study states.
When daily withdrawals from circulating supply exceed 1,000 BTC, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be hyperbolic, moving away from the adoption curve by 2028 (when supply shortages will tell a different story), with only supply scarcity remaining paramount.
Based on more aggressive daily withdrawal rate projections, Bitcoin will reach $2 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031.
While the authors caution against over-interpreting the cap projections, they agree that the mechanisms involved further validate Bitcoin’s emerging status as a strategic macro asset. As behavioral dynamics continue to drive Bitcoin toward long-term holders, the withdrawal amount required for new demand will become more price-sensitive.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $84,523.85, according to Kraken price information, with the total global cryptocurrency market capitalization at $2.64 trillion.
