On June 16th, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1789 yuan, depreciating by 17 basis points compared to the previous trading day’s rate of 7.1772 yuan, according to the official website of the People’s Bank of China. As of 9:35 a.m., the onshore yuan was quoted at 7.1869, depreciating by 0.08%, while the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.1898.
Since 2025, the RMB exchange rate has exhibited several new characteristics: the RMB has slightly appreciated against the US dollar, while the RMB exchange rate index has weakened somewhat. There has also been a divergence between the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB.
Looking ahead, the US dollar is likely to continue weakening, while the domestic economy is expected to stabilize and improve further, gradually building expectations for RMB appreciation against the US dollar.
Goldman Sachs’ Outlook on the US Dollar
Goldman Sachs Group predicts that the US dollar will continue to weaken in the global market, with this trend having considerable room for continuation. The bank has raised its six-month target for the pound against the US dollar from 1.35 to 1.40 and its 12-month target from 1.39 to 1.44. Goldman Sachs noted that although the monthly non-farm payroll data slightly exceeded expectations, the overall situation still confirmed the potential slowdown trend of the US economy. Given that the US economy’s performance is no longer unique, the bank believes that the US dollar will continue to face pressure in the medium term.
Market Performance and Investment Strategy
Since the beginning of this year, the overall performance of the US stock market has been flat, while the European stock market has risen significantly. When exchange rate losses are taken into account, the gap between the two widens even further. Goldman Sachs has continuously emphasized the rationality of reducing holdings of US dollar assets, especially given the declining attractiveness of the US market to overseas investors.
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