During the Asian trading session on Friday (June 13th), the euro/dollar pair pulled back. The latest exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.1543, down 0.38%. The euro fluctuated upward yesterday, once breaking through the 1.1600 mark and reaching a four-year high. The main reason supporting the euro’s rise was the continuous decline of the US dollar index under the pressure of weak economic data reigniting expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and the decline in US bond yields. In addition, the expectation that the European Central Bank is about to end its easing cycle also provides certain support for the exchange rate.
ECB Officials’ Views
Gediminas Simkus: A member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and the governor of the Central Bank of Lithuania, called for a pause in interest rate adjustments, noting that there is “great uncertainty” in the tariff policy of the United States. Simkus said on Thursday: “After eight interest rate cuts, we have reached the neutral interest rate level – now it is important to maintain the flexibility of decision-making and not lean in one direction.” The current economic situation is very uncertain – no one knows what decision the United States will make on July 9th. Simkus said, “I think it’s necessary to pause for a moment and take a look at our overall trend.” I do not rule out the possibility of another interest rate cut this year, because I think the possibility of the risk that inflation is below the medium-term target has increased.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau: A member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and the governor of the Bank of France, said that the future direction of interest rates would depend on the evolution of inflation. “I have never set a fixed position in advance – I believe in a pragmatic and flexible monetary policy. Everything remains to be seen.”
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
Short-Term Decline: The euro fell against the US dollar on Thursday and was supported above 1.1480, while its rise was hindered below 1.1635, suggesting that the short-term decline in EUR/USD may lead to an upward trend.
Resistance Levels: If the decline in EUR/USD stabilizes above 1.1560 today, the target for an increase in the future market will be between 1.1650 and 1.1715. Today, the short-term resistance in EUR/USD is between 1.1645 and 1.1650, and the important short-term resistance is between 1.1710 and 1.1715.
Support Levels: Today, the short-term support for the euro against the US dollar is at 1.1560-1.1565, and the short-term important support is at 1.1495-1.1500.
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