On Tuesday (June 10th), during the early Asian trading session, the latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.18%, with the opening price at 99.01. The newly released ADP employment data has intensified market concerns over an economic slowdown.
The data shows that against the backdrop of the continuous escalation of trade policy uncertainties, enterprises’ willingness to recruit has significantly weakened. Most employers have adopted a conservative strategy and only selectively fill key job vacancies.
This weak performance contrasts sharply with the end of 2024: in December last year and January this year, ADP employment increased by 164,000 and 183,000 respectively, both far exceeding market expectations, demonstrating the strong resilience of the labor market. The significant decline in the employment data for May indicates that the US labor market has shifted from steady growth to a weak trend.
Analysts point out that this shift may provide more operational space for the Federal Reserve to shift its monetary policy. As signs of economic slowdown gradually emerge, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year are strengthening. Investors need to closely monitor the subsequent non-farm payroll data and the evolution of the Federal Reserve’s policy signals. Under the current circumstances, the performance of the labor market will become a key barometer for judging the policy direction of the Federal Reserve.
Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index
As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, the market still maintains a bearish stance. The US dollar index may fall towards the support level of 97.91, which is the lowest since March 2022. This suggests that further downward pressure on the US dollar index is likely, and traders should be prepared for potential declines.
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