Brent crude oil traded around $65 a barrel, heading for its first weekly increase since mid-May. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held near $63 a barrel. The rise comes after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to continue trade negotiations focused on resolving tariffs and rare earth mineral supply disputes.
Oil Prices Pressured During Trump’s Term
Oil prices have dropped nearly 20% since Trump took office in January. The decline reflects concerns that a U.S.-led tariff war would reduce global demand for oil. Since mid-May, price swings have become less volatile as traders balance several factors: progress in trade talks, higher summer fuel consumption, geopolitical risks from Iran and Russia, and the possibility that OPEC+ will return more oil supplies to the market.
Analyst Sees Limited Downside as Demand Season Approaches
Huang Wanzhe, an analyst at Dadi Futures, said, “Now that the macro environment has calmed down, the likelihood of panic selling is low.” He added that with peak demand season coming and ongoing geopolitical risks, oil prices have limited room to fall further.
Focus on OPEC+ Production Plans
Market watchers are closely monitoring whether Saudi Arabia will urge OPEC+ to speed up restoring previously cut oil supplies. The group is scheduled to meet on July 6 to decide future production levels.
Options Market Signals Expectation of Future Supply Glut
Investors in the options market are increasingly betting that rising OPEC+ production could lead to a supply surplus by the end of this year and into 2026. Open interest in calendar spread options for WTI — which measure price differences between delivery months — reached a record high this week, according to CME Group data.
