Record Inflows Amid Optimism
Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $555.86 million on Monday, marking a multi-month high. This surge in inflows reflects growing optimism among traders that BTC may challenge its all-time high by the end of the year.
According to data provider SoSoValue, this influx represents the highest level of ETF inflows since June 4, when inflows reached $886.75 million.
BTC Price Movement
In the past 24 hours, BTC has increased by 2.2%, according to CoinDesk Indices data, aligning with the CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the performance of major digital assets.
A technical indicator known as the “three-line break chart” suggests that Bitcoin could potentially surpass $73,000, signaling a return to an upward trend after months of fluctuating prices.
Growing Market Confidence
Market predictions indicate increased optimism regarding BTC’s price potential. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that BTC will reach a new all-time high in 2024 has risen to 64%, a 9-percentage-point increase in the past week.
Similarly, on Kalshi, bettors estimate a 46% chance that Bitcoin’s price will hit $75,000 this year, which is a 7-percentage-point increase. Notably, Bitcoin achieved an all-time high of over $71,000 in March of this year.
Historical Trends in ETF Inflows
Despite the current optimism, historical data from Glassnode indicates that inflows exceeding $450 million in Bitcoin ETFs often signal a local top in the market.
For instance, on March 12, there was an inflow of $905 million just before Bitcoin reached its all-time high. Other notable inflow dates include March 29 ($760 million), June 3 ($1.2 billion), July 22 ($579 million), and September 27 ($454 million), where inflows over $450 million coincided with local price peaks.
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