On June 17, 2025, the COMEX gold price dropped by 0.32% to $3,406.50 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price rose by 0.04% to 787.38 yuan per gram.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, with no clear signs of easing. This has led to increased geopolitical uncertainty, which typically supports short-term demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
For example, Israel has launched strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, and both sides have engaged in missile and drone attacks. However, despite the rising tensions, the market’s reaction to the conflict remains moderate, with gold prices up less than 1% since the initial attack.
In terms of interest rates, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance. The latest CME “FedWatch” data shows a 97.3% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June, with a 2.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. By July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4%, and a 50 basis point cut is at 0.3%. The Fed is likely to remain in a “wait-and-see” mode, as it monitors the impact of tariffs and geopolitical developments.
Overall, while the Israel-Iran conflict provides short-term support for gold prices, the market is also closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which is expected to be announced in the early hours of June 19.
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