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Euro/Dollar’s Short-Term Overbought Rate Cut Cycle Nearing End

jingji06 by jingji06
2025-06-14
in Forex
Euro/Dollar’s Short-Term Overbought Rate Cut Cycle Nearing End
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During the Asian trading session on Friday (June 13th), the euro/dollar pair declined. The latest exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.1547, down 0.35%. Economists predict that the German economy will resume growth after two years of contraction. Isabel Schnabel, a hawkish figure at the European Central Bank (ECB), said that the ECB’s monetary policy is currently in a favorable position and the central bank’s interest rate cut cycle may end soon. Inflation and the economy are both on the right track.

ECB Officials’ Comments

ECB Governing Council Member Maherouf: The ECB’s interest rate is likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, but this does not mean that the bank will not adjust its policy at the next meeting.

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ECB Governing Council Member Kazakis: Reaching an inflation rate of 2% is “very likely” to require “further fine-tuning of interest rate cuts.”

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German Bond Yields Drop

The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bonds dropped to a nearly six-week low on Thursday, mainly benefiting from the inflow of safe-haven funds triggered by market concerns over trade tensions and tensions in the Middle East. The yield dropped nearly 7 basis points to 2.473%, the lowest level since early May, after US inflation data fell short of expectations the previous day, pushing down global Treasury bond yields across the board.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

Moving Averages: The 5-day, 10-day, and 21-day moving averages have risen.

Bollinger Bands: The 21-day Bollinger Bands range has increased.

Daily Chart Trend: The daily chart maintains an upward trend.

Support Levels: Yesterday’s low of 1.1486 and last Friday’s low of 1.1372 are the initial support levels.

Resistance Levels: Yesterday’s 2025 high of 1.1632 and 2021 October high of 1.1692 are the first resistance levels.

Overbought Condition: The upper Bollinger bands of 1.1581 on the 21st indicate that the euro is overbought in the short term.

Related Topics:

  • Traders Tend to Bet on a Single Interest Rate Cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025
  • Praiz: Federal Reserve Expected to Refrain from Rate Cuts in the Short Term
  • Yan Ruixiang: Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and CPI Data Key to Gold’s Success
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