On June 13th, yesterday, Thursday, we believe that the US CPI data was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. The US dollar was under pressure and dropped to a one-month low. In addition, the lack of details in the Sino-US trade framework and the trade uncertainty boosted the demand for safe-haven products, jointly supporting the rebound of gold prices. Therefore, in terms of operation, we suggest that everyone pay attention to the support of $3,338 at the bottom, followed by $3,318. The resistance above is focused on $3,377, followed by $3,400.
Looking at the subsequent trend, during the European trading session, gold fluctuated and rebounded. It continued the previous trend of stabilizing and rebounding after hitting a new daily low of $3,338. It rose to $3,388 but was blocked. After falling back to $3,373 and stabilizing, gold continued to rise after the opening of the US trading session, reaching a high of $3,398. After being blocked, gold fluctuated and fell back, stabilizing at $3,377. Overall, gold has stabilized and risen. After breaking through the pressure around $3,377, its attempt to test the $3,400 mark was blocked, and the upward trend is basically in line with expectations.
Wolfinance Star Analysts’ View
Wolfinance’s star analysts believe that gold continued to rise on Thursday, approaching its recent one-month high of $3,403. Its short-term strong performance was mainly supported by the demand for safe-haven products and expectations of interest rate cuts, which jointly contributed to the increase in gold prices. Specifically, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. Russia has launched the largest, most intense, and most extensive air strike against Ukraine since 2022. Tensions in the Middle East have intensified. US sources have disclosed that Israel is fully prepared to launch a military operation against Iran.
The framework agreement reached between China and the United States on trade disputes lacks details, and trade uncertainties still make the market tense. The US CPI and PPI data were lower than expected. The market has increased its bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates twice this year have risen, putting pressure on the US dollar and hitting a two-year low.
Technical Analysis of Gold
Gold has stabilized and rebounded from the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, showing a relatively strong short-term trend. Gold is expected to have support at the bottom. Pay attention to the high point of $3,377 in the Asian session on Thursday. This is also the point where the gold price has rebounded and stabilized several times after surging in the European and American sessions on Thursday, testing the position. Next, pay attention to the high point of $3,360 on Wednesday and the low point of $3,338 on Thursday. This is the position of the daily MA5 moving average. Gold is facing upward pressure. Pay attention to the $3,400 mark, which is near the highest point in the past month and also near the high point of gold’s rise on Thursday. Breaking through this upward trend is expected to further strengthen the gold price.
The high point of gold in May, $3,438, can be watched. The 5-day moving average is approaching to form a golden cross, the MACD indicator is slightly golden cross, and the KDJ and RSI indicators are golden cross. The short-term technical analysis shows that the bulls are relatively dominant.
Intraday Reference for Gold
The intensification of geopolitical tensions, the lack of details in the Sino-US trade framework, which boosts market demand for safe-haven assets, and the lower-than-expected US CPI and PPI data reinforce expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, dragging down the dollar’s performance and jointly supporting the rise in gold prices. In terms of operation, it is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. The support level should be watched at $3,377, followed by $3,360 and $3,338. The resistance level should be watched at $3,400, followed by $3,438.
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