Data from the US Department of Labor shows that in May, the CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, both lower than expected. After the release of the CPI data, US President called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point.
Wall Street traders have also increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. They basically expect two rate cuts this year, and interest rate swaps indicate that traders expect a 75% chance of the Fed cutting rates before September.
Catalyzed by the favorable interest rate cut, the gold price rebounded strongly today. The Gold Fund ETF (518800) rose by more than 1%, with an intraday trading volume of nearly 100 million yuan and a net inflow of nearly 300 million yuan for three consecutive days.
The Gold Fund ETF (518800) closely tracks the trend of gold prices. One lot of the Gold Fund ETF corresponds to 1 gram of gold, which is equivalent to a holding certificate of physical gold. It operates on a T+0 trading basis and has relatively good liquidity on the exchange.
DBS Securities stated that from January to April 2025, the gold price experienced a new round of upward trend. While raising prices, the central bank continued to increase its gold holdings. Although the gold price slightly declined in May, the central bank still maintained its increase in holdings. The central bank has a strong willingness to increase its gold holdings and will adjust its pace in phases to adapt to changes in market prices.
After the implementation of the “reciprocal tariff” in April, gold experienced a short-term pullback due to liquidity shocks. In May, during the tariff game, the gold price showed a consolidation trend. In the medium and long term, the logic of “de-dollarization” in gold pricing remains unchanged, and we are still optimistic about the medium-term trend of gold.
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