Copper shipments to the United States have sharply increased in recent months, and analysts believe this trend will likely continue as long as tariff threats remain and COMEX copper prices stay elevated. The current pricing gap allows traders and producers to turn a solid profit, incentivizing further imports.
Rising COMEX Prices Trigger Import Boom
The recent spike in COMEX copper prices followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision in February to launch an investigation into new tariffs on copper imports. Copper is critical to sectors like electric vehicles, infrastructure, and construction.
On March 26, COMEX copper reached a record high of $11,633 per metric ton. That was more than $1,570 above the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The price premium created a strong draw for traders.
According to U.S. government data, copper imports in March topped 123,000 metric tons, nearly double the 58,000 tons imported in February and far more than January’s 76,000 tons.
Analysts Expect Further Imports Through May
UBS Investment Research estimates that an additional 250,000 to 300,000 metric tons of copper will arrive in the U.S. between March and May. Sharon Ding, head of China basic materials at UBS, shared the forecast during the Shanghai Metals Markets event held at London Metal Exchange Week in Hong Kong.
“Uncertainty around tariffs and price differences is driving these shipments,” Ding said.
Some of the copper being rerouted to the U.S. was initially bound for China. However, a significant portion has come directly from LME-registered warehouses. Stocks at these warehouses have dropped nearly 60% since mid-February, down to 170,750 tons.
COMEX Premium Still Encouraging Shipments
Though the COMEX premium has fallen from its peak, it remains strong. Traders say a $600 per ton premium is still enough to cover costs and ensure a healthy profit.
“Anyone who can get raw materials into the U.S. is highly motivated,” said Marcus Garvey, head of commodity strategy at Macquarie. “I expect this trend to continue. Premiums remain well above normal levels.”
Faster Shipping Options Reflect Urgency
Most copper shipments usually move via container ships, which carry smaller, fixed volumes—up to 25 tons per container—and make multiple stops. These journeys can take up to 40 days.
However, due to the urgency created by possible new tariffs, traders are now using bulk carriers. These ships sail directly to their destinations and reduce travel time to roughly two weeks, according to logistics sources.
Data Shows Spike in Bulk Shipments
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler confirms the shift in volume and method. Kpler estimates that 95,202 tons of copper arrived in the U.S. in March, and 127,539 tons followed in April. That compares with about 44,000 tons in both January and February.
In the first half of May alone, 71,591 tons of copper reached U.S. shores aboard bulk carriers. Notably, copper shipments from Chile have been above normal levels. Meanwhile, exports from Germany and Spain—which rarely ship copper to the U.S.—saw surprising volumes of 10,000 tons and 4,500 tons, respectively, in March and April.
Outlook: More Atypical Shipments Likely
“We could see more unusual cargoes arrive in the second half of May,” said Ben Ayr, an analyst at Kpler. “COMEX prices continue to exceed LME prices, so the financial motivation to send refined copper to the U.S. is still strong.”
As long as price premiums remain and policy uncertainty continues, analysts believe traders will keep rerouting copper supplies to the U.S., even from unexpected sources.
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